Review + Context

With weekly one-timeframing ending last week, the relentless upgrind from the 1800 lows has suffered it's first sign of weakening.

Let's look at what's been going on the last few days of downtrend:

As you can see, the day-timeframe is still in charge of the auction.  Despite promising overall volume on April 29, the market repeatedly couldn't gain momentum and also stalled out around the known day-timeframe references.  This signifies stronger money is not behind the moves; they are primarily occurring due to inventory imbalances - too many traders are facing the same direction so to speak.

Starting with 4/27, the market exhibited poorness at the high and the low, a rare situation.  The following day failed to take out the poor high after multiple attempts, and the game was apparently up - buyers quickly dumped positions.  Momentum traders piled on, and before you could say "short in the hole" the market panicked down to a second distribution at the lows after that huge break that took out the previous low.

At this point the market is dangerously short.  But, that doesn't mean the downtrend is over yet - one characteristic of short term herd mentality is taking prices to extremes before reality sets in.

The following day opens at a downgap, which although filled on the open is quickly sold down to new lows.  Looking outside a previously established distribution low at 47.25, the market fails, quickly trading back into said distribution - only to stall out at half back on low buyside volume.  The rally wasn't attracting enough buyers to have any staying power, so back down we go.  Once again demonstrating who is in control of the market, the market bounces off the  nearest reference (the current low), establishing a poor low.  Unable to take it out in the following half hour, the sellers (who are too short) finally throw in the towel.  Buyside volume picks up and the market rallies all the way to... the opening print (another day-timeframe reference).  Weak!

 The failed attempt to go lower is noted, and short covering continues into today.  I considered most every sell underneath 77.25 weak and late, so with most all of those positions squeezed out at this point I consider the market neutral again.

Which means it's time to monitor for the next directional move.  A case can be made for both directions:

Continue Rally:
-2071 Upper dist low is an important support reference - best this stays intact
-2077.50 weak high needs to be fixed,
-2089.25 prominent poc needs to be revisited,
-and the combination of poor and weak highs around 2094 also need to be fixed

Resume Break:
-Re-entry and acceptance into today's lower dist high at 2069.25,
-2065.75 prominent poc needs to be revisited,
-2059.50 weak low needs to be fixed,
-and finally the poor low that this rally originated from at 2045.75 needs to be taken out.