The rally continues

After looking outside the two-day balance low (see previous post), the market failed to 1) accelerate and/or 2) find price acceptance over time.  Rejecting back up into the 2-day balance, the logical target became the previous session's high (which was also the overnight high for both that session and the current one).   Price trading here would trap everyone who sold during the entire globex session yesterday, everyone who sold in the overnight session today, and everyone who sold during the pit session today prior to that price being breached.

When it was eventually breached, price popped 5-6 ticks in a second or two, it was quite a memorable sight to see so many stops hit at once!

However, what followed was disappointment, grind, and eventual failure to follow through on the breakout - and a pullback that went basically to the other extreme of the distribution the market established earlier that day.  This forced me to throw in the towel on my longs for a much-reduced profit and much-increased dismay.  After "2 1/2 hrs at the high and no buy", the liquidation was fierce and I was not going to stand in its way.

For a discussion of the context surrounding the open and the first half-hour of trade, check out this webinar recorded live at the time by JDalton Trading:



Ok, pertinent references from today's market are as follow:

3/22 Market Profile w/ markup

Coming into tomorrow, I do not expect there to be much change in the "miserable rally" that's been ongoing. Despite that wicked L period break (pullback), the single print critical reference was not filled.  I see that huge pullback as a sign of tiredness - if buyers were truly interested it would not have broken as fast, hard, or far as it did.  The piss-poor high is more evidence of tired buyers too, but it (ironically) sets the stage for further upside in the future.

For this to occur, I would expect the single B print to hold as the market targets that piss-poor high.  Above that there is a prominent poc at 2058 from the last trading day of 2015.

Meaningful change to the downside would be marked by high-conviction selling, easily tearing through the L low and B single print, and taking out the low at 2030.50.  Acceleration and acceptance should follow, with price eating into the three distributions formed on 3/17 (shown below), one at a time.  Below that awaits more weakness, also detailed in the March 20 post's references.