Sunday, March 20, 2016

The Death of Tick Charts & "ultrashorterm" Thinking

After much review and reflection, I concluded the answer was staring me in the face all this time.  Embarrassingly obvious, it was obscured by what I now see as noise (vs valuable, tradeable information).

One must burn down to rebuild.  And so, you will not see a discussion of anything less than the half-hour time period, and never will you see another tick chart again on this blog.  They are misleading and cause one to "miss the forest for the trees".  When I'm so focused on the individual trades executing at any moment in time, I cannot begin to appreciate what's really going on - I'm looking at the markets the way a scalper would.

But I am not a scalper.  I choose my trades carefully, and commit to them.  And, consequently, when they work I profit handsomely.  Realizing this, I thought - why am I using tools that aren't associated with my timeframe?  And just like that, they are gone.  Now, my charts are, in order:

  • monthly pit session
  • weekly pit session
  • daily pit session
  • daily pit market profiles
  • continuous half-hour candlestick chart
Looking at the market from a higher timeframe has actually taken a huge weight off my shoulders.  Executing trades has been much easier, too.  Much of the fear is now gone, replaced with nice colorful bars that beckon me into the market when the time is right and structure is attractive.

And right now, structure is exceedingly attracting.  Let's watch Jim Dalton's overview of how he analyzes the market, which is what I've basically copied in my bullet list above:



And now, let's look at some references going into the week, some of which were expanded upon in the video.  Structurally, the market is very long on a weak foundation.  Keep a sharp eye for deterioration followed by correction.

References below the current market - weak money has primarily driven this rally

Additionally, the market got very long (triple-distribution day!) on Thursday's big rally, too long to keep those prices
See how easy it is to find the important prices and references?  You would never see this in the short-term focused-chart's fog. With Friday being a balancing day that did not take out Thursday's upper dist low, right now the rally is still intact. Patience...



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