A period then revisits the high, failing after extending it up by a single tick. Dumping down, it consolidates, presses up to one tick shy of the opening print, and then resumes the selloff. At this point I know without a doubt that weak hands are in charge of the auction, because of the market's behavior at these known weak references.
Carrying this information forward, I also know there may be an opportunity to fade them once their inventory gets too short - after all, weak hands are 1) typically day-timeframe oriented, and 2) scare very easily, possessing no staying power if price moves against them (unlike the feared long-timeframe institutional traders). Meaning, they will bail out with a market order. And if enough of them do this, price will keep moving further and further against them, potentially all the way back to the weak references they're selling the market off of, a large distance. Which is why I'm interested in fading their move - but not so fast! Remember the old phrase "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"? Patience first. Let's allow them to dig their own grave before we help lower the casket on 'em.
And dig they did, taking out each 1/2hr bar low in a one-timeframing fashion until we finally get a bounce off 62.75. Stopping one-timeframing for the first time, the market now consolidates sideways, very very slowly grinding away. Normally I would've hopped on board this shorting opportunity, but I could feel the market moving so slow, the tempo was pretty bad - a clue the downpush may be peaking since the market is slowing down. Thus, there wouldn't be much to the downside relative to the risk I was taking on the trade (I likely would be looking at only slightly better than 1:2 risk to reward). I mentally began to speculate the weak, day-timeframe traders were beginning to stall out - and what the market does at the low will confirm/deny this idea.
Resuming one-timeframing, it hits the low exactly and mechanically bounces up about a point. And just sits there, attempting to trade down but really doing basically nothing. No one is really selling or buying, we're in stasis. That no one has the conviction to really push this thing is certainly not a sign of confidence. After what felt like a good long while, it finally takes out the low with great lethargy & by only three ticks before being rather swiftly rejected, bouncing up (1 on the chart below) 2 ticks from the 61.50 reference (7/28 low) with new found life. And ceasing to one-timeframe for the second time (2 on the chart below)! I now have all the information I need to commit to my idea by executing my trade. Not having a concrete entry location, I guesstimated an entry off the nearest tick chart-provided reference (2064), with my stop at the low.
Now, where to target? Since this is a situation where I expect the market to come out of a thick balance area, a few measurements need to be taken. You can usually shoot for somewhere between the entire balance area's width and 1/2 of said width (see chart markup @ my exit). In this case, I could shoot for somewhere between half the balance area width (2071) and the entire balance width of 6 points (2074) from the point of balance area departure (2068 - the balance area high noted on the above chart).
Know that at this point I'm drained. This position has been torturing me for almost an hour and a half, taking its sweet time to do what I'm hoping and expecting it to, but can't really tell if it is really committing to. Not to mention several scary & sudden price drops along the way that made my blood run cold. The last thing I want is to have the market indeed move my way, but not be filled because I was too greedy on my exit; only to then watch price collapse back down to the PoC (which by now has gotten quite fat as you can see on the MP). Playing it conservative, I decide to exit at the 1/2 balance area width target, not giving the market a chance to screw my winning trade over like it's done many times before.
To this day it remains an absolutely amazing feeling when the market moves to my exit price & trade begins to occur, filling those ahead of me in line. Suddenly, like magic, my number comes up and I'm hit, locking in the profit & giving me that emotional thrill. Lock it in, ring that register, and call it a day... what a great way to end the week!
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