Overview + Levels

11/25 1200-tick chart

Yesterday's auction expectedly probed beneath previous session's low @ 64.  Why expectedly? Because the previous session's low was a very prominent shelf, many periods terminated at the exact same price, making it really stick out.  With so much buy interest at one price, the market just had to know what would happen once price fell lower - would sellers step in/stops get hit, or would it just peeter out?  As we can see in the above activity-based chart, (unsurprisingly due to the never-ending bid) the latter was the case.

11/25 Completed Market Profile

Coming into today, market profile has a few things of note.  First, the long selling tail above the swing high at 70.50 is a resistance price candidate - this is where a reversal & new downtrend could begin.  Second, the heart of the value area by the PoC at 68 is quite thick, which tells me the market wants to trade there. In fact, the entire value area is defined by thickness, with a shelf forming at the top (70) and the bottom (65.75), defining and containing the majority of the intraday trade.

Daily chart of S&P day session trade

From a longer-term perspective, there's potentially a large move waiting to the downside to the next support area.  Market profile reveals an unrepaired anomaly from the 11/21 session at 60.75, and a completion of the gap fill initiated on that same session at 52.50.  While it is doubtful these prices will trade today (due to the general lack of activity, volume, and momentum up here), it's good be mindful of a variety of scenarios going into each day.  You never know just what could happen.